Congress did not release the 2026 Social Security and Medicare solvency analysis. The Boards of Trustees released the reports on June 9, 2026, and transmitted the Social Security report to Congress as required by law, according to the Social Security Administration. The findings do not predict that either program will disappear. Solvency measures whether dedicated trust-fund reserves and continuing income can cover scheduled payments under current law.
Official resource:
- Read the official guidance from CMS — Use this primary source to verify the official guidance.
Table of Contents
- When could Social Security face a shortfall?
- What does the Medicare projection mean?
- How large are the financing gaps?
- How should retirees use these projections?
- Why these dates can change
When could Social Security face a shortfall?
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance fund, or OASI, pays retirement and survivor benefits. Trustees project that it can pay full scheduled benefits through the fourth quarter of 2032. After reserve depletion, continuing income would cover 78% of scheduled OASI benefits.
The Trustees' summary also shows a combined social Security illustration: OASI and Disability Insurance reserves would deplete in the third quarter of 2034, with 83% payable. That combined date can be misleading. OASI and Disability Insurance are legally separate trust funds, so the 2034 illustration is not the governing result under current law. The Disability Insurance fund alone can pay full scheduled benefits through at least 2100, the projection period's endpoint.
What does the Medicare projection mean?
Medicare's Hospital Insurance trust fund finances Part A. Trustees project that its reserves will deplete in the second quarter of 2033, one quarter earlier than estimated last year. Continuing revenue would then cover 89% of scheduled Part A benefits.
According to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the resulting constraint would apply to payments made to Part A providers. Parts B and D have a different financing structure. Their premiums and federal contributions are reset annually to meet expected costs, so they do not face the same depletion test. Their financing is still projected to grow faster than the economy.
How large are the financing gaps?
The 75-year actuarial deficit is 4.55% of taxable payroll for OASI and 0.56% for Medicare Part A. Disability Insurance has a projected surplus equal to 0.13% of taxable payroll, as reported in the Trustees' financial projections. An actuarial deficit compares projected program income with projected obligations over the full 75-year period.
It is not an estimate of an immediate benefit cut or a program's termination date. The percentages also are not directly interchangeable with an individual's benefit reduction. The clearest near-term planning figures are the projected payable shares: 78% for OASI after 2032 and 89% for Part A after 2033.
How should retirees use these projections?
People planning retirement should distinguish scheduled benefits from benefits payable under current financing. A useful stress test is to compare a retirement budget using scheduled Social Security income with one using 78% after the fourth quarter of 2032. Do not substitute the combined 2034 OASDI illustration for the legally relevant OASI projection.
Someone relying primarily on retirement or survivor benefits should focus on the OASI timeline, while recognizing that legislation could change the outcome. Likewise, Medicare's 89% figure concerns aggregate Part A financing and provider payments. It does not mean Parts B and D would lose financing at the same time.
Why these dates can change
The projections use intermediate assumptions that the Trustees consider their best estimates for demographic, economic, and health trends. Future reports may move the depletion dates or payable percentages as experience and assumptions change.
Under current law, affected trust funds cannot pay scheduled amounts beyond their available income and reserves. Earlier legislation would allow financing changes to be spread more broadly; waiting until depletion would concentrate the required adjustments closer to the projected shortfalls.