No. High earners would keep their COLA, the yearly cost-of-living adjustment, but the largest benefits could see a capped dollar raise.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget outlined the cap idea in its Oct. 21 white paper. It would limit the size of the raise for top benefits, not remove it.
Table of Contents
- What the cap would change
- Who keeps the full increase
- How much it would help solvency
- What to do while it remains a proposal
What the cap would change
Social Security now applies the same percentage to every check. The Social Security Administration set the 2026 adjustment at 2.8%.
It reflects CPI-W growth from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025, as shown in its 2026 COLA fact sheet. The cap would replace the full percentage with a fixed-dollar raise above a threshold. Large benefits would still rise each year, but their growth would slow.
Who keeps the full increase
Most retirees would see no change. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes a design that acts only above about the 75th percentile of benefits. That targets roughly the top quarter of lifetime earners. As an illustration, the Committee uses about $45,000 in yearly benefits as the break point.
People at or below that level would keep the full percentage. Larger benefits would receive a fixed-dollar increase instead. The 2.8% increase shows why the limit hits the top most. The Committee estimated about $650 for a typical $24,000 benefit versus about $1,400 for a $49,400 maximum benefit.
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How much it would help solvency
Savings would be real but partial. Modeling with Urban Institute DYNASIM, the Committee estimated about $115 billion over 10 years for a 75th-percentile cap. It would close roughly one-tenth of the 75-year shortfall, with $35 billion to $385 billion across stricter or looser caps.
The backdrop is a funding shortfall. The Social Security Board of Trustees projects the retirement fund depleted in Q4 2032. It would then pay 78% of benefits, while combined funds would last to 2034 paying 83% absent action, according to its June trustees update.
What to do while it remains a proposal
This cap remains only a think-tank solvency option. No law now eliminates high earners' COLAs.
The Committee states it endorses no particular solution, and Congress must act before any change. Use this pause to plan with real numbers: If your benefit is well above the illustration level, build a cushion for slower growth and watch Congress for any formal bill.
- Find your current yearly benefit on your Social Security statement
- Compare it with the $45,000 illustration level to gauge exposure
- Model spending if raises on large benefits grow more slowly
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